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发布时间：2024-09-20 观看次数：97533
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| North Korean leader Kim Jong-un looks tired and nervous during his second meeting with President Moon Jae-in at the Panmunjeom truce village on Saturday. /Korea Times |
By Oh Young-jin
Did you see what I saw?
The video and photos released by the presidential office after the surprise Panmunjeom summit on May 26 show North Korean leader Kim Jong-un minus the confident aura shown during his first meeting with President Moon Jae-in April 27.
Instead, his eyes show a strong hint of tiredness, perhaps from lack of sleep due to worry or fear, and his smiles were not as open as they were when he was seen in public with Moon a month ago.
Why? This is a loaded question and an answer may sound realistic and fantastic at the same time.
First, the North under the young dictator tried its typical magic trick ahead of the June 12 summit with U.S. President Donald Trump to jockey for a better position. It follows the first leaf from the North's favorite playbook. But it did not work.
Citing U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton's threat to extract a Libyan style of unconditional surrender from the North, Pyongyang played its trump card of stalling until the other side hesitated. Pyongyang stood up U.S. working-level teams for preparations for the Singapore summit, nixed a high-level contact with the South and tried to keep a group of South Korean reporters from observing the North as it destroyed its nuclear test site in Punggye-ri.
Trump did not take the bait. Rather, he played an ace in the hole with an act of typical trump brinkmanship, sending an open letter telling the young dictator, who is half Trump's age, that he would not mind if Kim did not come to Singapore.
The North panicked. Hours later, Pyongyang issued a statement virtually apologizing to Trump and asking him to reconsider.
Trump did not take long to respond as if he had expected the reaction, and told the world he might put the Singapore back on schedule, depending on how the North behaved.
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| A more confident-looking Kim Jong-un during the April 27 summit. / Korea Times |
So it was not Kim who played Trump ― it was the other way around.
If there was any doubt about this, President Moon made it clear.
During his news conference, Moon revealed that Kim had asked for the Saturday meeting.
This also showed how desperate Kim has become. The South is accustomed to playing sucker for the North; now the North has come to its fall guy for help.
Despite this awkward situation, the North put its leader rather than a proxy up front.
A couple of observations derive from this.
First, the North is as crafty as it was under the leader's predecessors.
Kim Jong-il, Jong-un's father, was an apprentice for years before ascending to power. He was responsible for many acts of terror against the South, involving himself in an assassination attempt against President Chun Doo-hwan and the downing of a Korean Air jet.
Kim's grandfather, Kim Il-sung, put himself on the throne of the North under the tutelage of the Soviets at the end of Japanese colonial rule and led an invasion against the South to start the 1950-1953 Korean War.
He also engaged in a series of purges to keep himself in power after the war and started the Kim dynasty that continues today.
But the current leader was in his mid-30s when he took over in 2011 after his father died. Jong-un is western-educated, likes to watch basketball and lacks harsh training as leader of an impoverished rogue state. He may even lack a genuine thirst for power.
He has imitated his grandfather by gaining weight and smoking cigarettes to portray himself as an experienced ruthless butcher, killing his uncle and playing musical chairs with his subordinates.
So far, his charade has worked. But Kim is undergoing a formidable test now with Trump, and may be revealed for what he really is.
This test has internal and external ramifications.
Internally, Kim may lose his foundation of power ― fear among his subordinates.
Those who have supported him out of loyalty to his father and grandfather and eagerness to keep their positions would feel tempted to look for other ways to preserve their privileges. Dictators are often deposed when their facade of absolute power cracks.
Externally, momentum has swung to Trump, and the U.S. president should be able to make short work of the North, unless he is impeached or loses a significant share of his power.
Whatever the result of the ongoing Trump-Kim bout posturing, the likelihood is that Kim may actually be naive enough to believe he can denuclearize his country and prosper without risking his power.
Perhaps he even thought he could get away with his nuclear program as well.
For that to happen, Kim needs to have as much guts as his father or grandfather. So far, this does not appear to be the case.